Seminar

Challenges in the Study of the Consequences of Civil War
Ana Arjona
Northwestern University

Chairs
Juan Masullo & Andrea Ruggeri
University of Milan 

1 December 2025, h. 12:30
Room B | NASP Graduate School
Via Pace 10, Milan

Abstract

Civil war can have short- and long-term impacts on important outcomes, including individual and collective behavior, institutions, development, and state-building. A growing debate about how to study the long-term legacies of political violence (including civil war) has highlighted important methodological challenges. We contribute to this debate by identifying three conceptual, theoretical, and empirical issues that scholars should consider when studying the consequences of civil war: (i) how to conceptualize exposure to civil war, given the interdependence of wartime dynamics such as violence, armed governance, and civilian responses; (ii) how to aggregate exposure to such dynamics over time; and (iii) how to determine the appropriate unit of analysis. We argue that the choices scholars make to address these challenges can substantially shape their findings. We illustrate our argument with original data on civil war dynamics and human development outcomes in Colombia. We conclude by discussing how the field can collectively develop theoretical priors to guide these choices.

Bio

Ana Arjona is an Associate Professor in the Political Science Department at Northwestern University. She is also Co-Editor-in-Chief of the journal Perspectives on Politics and Founding Director of REDESDAL (Network of Studies on Drugs in Latin America). Her research focuses on the interplay between violence, governance, and individual behavior, exploring how institutions and individual choice change in violent settings, and how these dynamics continue to influence politics and development after the violence ends.